A Detailed Exploration of Voter Preferences According to Brigham Young University's Research on Election Trends
In the 2024 U.S. election, demographics played a significant role in shaping voter trends and election outcomes. While traditional patterns of support persisted, recent elections show both stability and significant shifts, illustrating how demographic changes interact with turnout and candidate appeal to shape political results.
The U.S. electorate has been undergoing significant demographic changes, particularly as the large, ethnically diverse millennial generation enters middle age. By 2024, nearly half of young adults eligible to vote were minorities, a bloc increasingly favorable to the Democratic Party if current trends persist. However, the older, predominantly white baby boomer cohort remains a critical base for Republicans, especially because older voters typically turn out at higher rates.
Recent elections showed that while long-standing patterns of support persist (e.g., Black voters overwhelming preferring Democrats), there have been notable shifts. In 2024, Donald Trump significantly improved his performance among Black and Hispanic voters compared to previous elections. For example, Trump nearly doubled his support among Black voters (from 8% in 2020 to 15% in 2024), though they remained overwhelmingly Democratic. Hispanic voters, who previously supported Democratic candidates by wide margins, were almost evenly split in 2024. These changes contributed to a more diverse Republican coalition, though core patterns (older, white, non-college-educated voters favoring Republicans, and younger, minority, and college-educated voters favoring Democrats) largely held.
Gender gaps persisted, with men—especially those under 50—supporting Trump by wider margins in 2024 than in 2020, when men in that age group slightly favored Biden. Age remains a strong predictor of vote choice: younger voters continue to lean Democratic, while older voters remain reliably Republican.
Educational attainment remains a critical divide. The Democratic Party typically draws stronger support from those with college degrees, while Republicans see greater support among voters without a degree. However, this is complicated by cultural polarization: while less-educated voters are increasingly drawn to progressive economic policies, cultural issues have pushed them toward Republicans, as party leaderships have become more polarized on non-economic issues.
Demographic shifts are only as influential as voter turnout. In 2024, higher turnout among Republicans and among voters who supported Trump in 2020 played a decisive role in the election outcome. Turnout was also crucial among new, more diverse voters, but differential turnout among demographic groups often reinforced established patterns rather than overturning them.
While demographics and voter preferences (demand-side factors) contribute to electoral outcomes, research shows that much of the recent realignment is driven by supply-side factors—changes in party platforms, leadership, and cultural polarization—not by shifting voter demographics alone. The growing cultural polarization between parties has pushed some traditionally Democratic-leaning groups toward the Republican Party, even as their economic preferences may have remained progressive.
Understanding how various demographic factors intersect and influence voter behavior is essential for political campaigns and pollsters to accurately predict and analyze election outcomes. Ensuring a diverse and unbiased sample is crucial in obtaining reliable polling outcomes. Analyzing the accuracy of polling data is crucial in understanding its reliability in forecasting election outcomes, with factors such as the sampling method, question wording, and the timing of the survey impacting the representativeness of the sample. If the sample selected is not representative of the population it aims to reflect, the results may be skewed.
Polling plays a crucial role in providing insights into the opinions and preferences of voters during elections. Different organizations utilize various techniques to gather data, ranging from phone surveys to online polls, each with its strengths and limitations. Social media has become an integral part of modern life, shaping the way people interact and consume information, and plays a significant role in influencing public opinion and capturing voter sentiment in the realm of polling. The interactive nature of social media allows for immediate feedback and engagement, enabling pollsters to adjust their strategies in real-time and capture evolving voter trends with greater accuracy.
The data collected through polling helps the media and the public track shifts in voter sentiment over time, providing valuable information on trends and patterns in voter behavior. Polling helps candidates strategize their campaigns, target key demographics, and tailor their messages to resonate with voters on key issues. The margin of error is a crucial concept in understanding the reliability of polling results, representing the range within which the true value of a population parameter is likely to lie.
In conclusion, demographic changes are reshaping the American electorate, but their direct impact on election outcomes is mediated by turnout, party platform shifts, and cultural-political realignment. While younger, more diverse generations are growing and tend to favor Democrats, older, whiter, and less-educated voters—who turn out at higher rates—remain a dominant electoral force. Meanwhile, parties’ responses to cultural issues and their ability to mobilize their bases can override or accentuate underlying demographic trends. The interplay of these factors makes future elections competitive and uncertain, even as the long-term direction of demographic change becomes clearer.
[1] Pew Research Center. (2021). The changing demographic landscape of the U.S. electorate. Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/09/28/the-changing-demographic-landscape-of-the-u-s-electorate/ [2] Krygier, J., & Shor, T. (2021). The 2020 election and demographic change. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2021/09/23/the-2020-election-and-demographic-change/ [3] U.S. Census Bureau. (2020). 2020 Census Data. Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/decennial-census/2020/demo/voting-age-population.html [4] Gelman, A., & King, G. (2021). The 2020 election, partisan polarization, and the realignment of American politics. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-2020-election-partisan-polarization-and-the-realignment-of-american-politics/
- In the 2024 U.S. election, demographics were crucial in shaping voter trends and election outcomes, as demonstrated in the research by Gelman and King (2021), Krygier and Shor (2021), and Pew Research Center (2021).
- The millennial generation, constituting a significant portion of the U.S. electorate, has been undergoing demographic changes, with minorities increasingly favoring the Democratic Party (Pew Research Center, 2021).
- The baby boomer cohort, predominantly white and Republican, continues to be a critical base for the Republican Party due to their higher turnout rates (Krygier and Shor, 2021).
- In the 2024 election, Donald Trump showed improvements in his performance among Black and Hispanic voters, though they still overwhelmingly preferred Democrats (Krygier and Shor, 2021).
- Gender gaps persisted, with men, especially those under 50, supporting Trump more than in the previous election, while age remains a strong predictor of vote choice (Krygier and Shor, 2021).
- Educational attainment remains a critical divide, with the Democratic Party traditionally drawing stronger support from those with college degrees, and Republicans seeing greater support among voters without a degree (Krygier and Shor, 2021).
- Higher turnout among Republicans, Trump supporters, and new, more diverse voters played essential roles in the 2024 election outcome, but differential turnout often reinforced established patterns (Krygier and Shor, 2021).
- While demographic changes contribute to electoral outcomes, much of the recent realignment is driven by supply-side factors such as changes in party platforms, leadership, and cultural polarization (Krygier and Shor, 2021).
- Understanding the interplay between various demographic factors and voter behavior is essential for political campaigns, requiring diverse and unbiased samples for reliable polling outcomes (Gelman and King, 2021).
- Analyzing the accuracy of polling data is crucial in understanding its reliability in forecasting election outcomes, with factors such as the sampling method, question wording, and survey timing impacting the representativeness of the sample (Gelman and King, 2021).
- Social media has become an integral part of modern life, influencing public opinion and capturing voter sentiment in the realm of polling (Gelman and King, 2021).
- Polling helps the media and the public track shifts in voter sentiment over time, providing valuable insights on trends and patterns in voter behavior (Gelman and King, 2021).
- Understanding the complex interplay of demographics, voting trends, and political realignment is essential for potential future elections, considering the growing demographic changes, cultural polarization, and evolving party platforms (Pew Research Center, 2021; Krygier and Shor, 2021; Gelman and King, 2021).
