California's Democratic Governor Newsom's drive for new House district maps is not set in stone, despite the heavily Democratic lean of the state.
California is gearing up for an unusual midterm election next month, with the focus not on candidates but on a controversial proposal to reshape the state's U.S. House districts.
Last year, California displayed a slight rightward shift in elections, yet Governor Gavin Newsom's proposal aims to add five Democratic seats before the 2026 midterm elections. The election's unusual timing and complex question make it difficult to predict who will be motivated to show up and vote.
Newsom has been framing the election as a referendum on all things Trump, who is unpopular in liberal-leaning California outside his conservative base. However, the issue doesn't necessarily break neatly along partisan lines. In fact, the resistance against Newsom's initiative is primarily led by Republicans and conservative groups who oppose the Democratic-led effort to counteract redistricting moves by Republicans in other states.
The proposal has sparked debate, with U.S. Rep. Kevin Kiley, a Republican, arguing that voting "yes" would return the state to an era of political gerrymandering. On the other hand, Newsom argues that the current system is biased towards Republicans, citing the 2021 recall election he won as a proxy vote on Trump.
Opponents also note that the new maps would, in some cases, splinter racial and ethnic communities into different districts. GOP candidate hasn't won a statewide election in nearly two decades, and no Republican has carried the state in a presidential election since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
The race could be a "real jump ball" as to who controls the messaging, according to Bill Whalen, a fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Republican consultant Tim Rosales suggests Republicans and opponents need a heroic GOP turnout, paired with 60% of independents and 25% of Democratic voters, to overcome the strong Democratic registration advantage in the state.
Notably, moderate Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is opposing Newsom's proposal. The outcome of the election will have national implications for House control, as it could offset President Donald Trump's moves in Texas to gain Republican districts in 2026.
Mail-in ballots for the election will go out early next month, and millions of dollars are pouring into the race. Confused voters tend to be skeptical, and some might recoil at the proposal due to districts stretching across the state and uniting rural and farming areas that typically lean Republican with coastal areas where Democrats are concentrated.
Despite the Democratic advantage in the state, the proposal is not a sure win with voters. Just because the governor supports an idea, it doesn't necessarily translate to a victory, according to Whalen. The election promises to be a fascinating test of California's political landscape.
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