Transforming a Demographic Dividend into Long-term Sociopolitical and Economic Fairness
India, with its large youth cohort, stands at a pivotal moment. The northern states still have high Total Fertility Rates (TFR), while the southern states are grappling with workforce ageing, posing challenges for national policy calibration.
One of the key areas requiring immediate attention is reproductive health and rights. A staggering 12% of adolescents in India have an unmet need for modern contraception, and 36% of adults face unintended pregnancies. To address this, the government must expand access to reproductive healthcare services, integrate reproductive health education into school curricula, and launch community-based health programs.
The education sector also demands attention. A significant number of rural young women lack personal smartphones, limiting access to tele-skilling and tele-health. To bridge this digital divide, promoting digital literacy and innovation, and encouraging public-private partnerships for skill-building initiatives are crucial.
In addition, investing in vocational training and higher education programs tailored to market needs can help bridge the gap between education and employment. By doing so, India can ensure its youth are equipped with the skills necessary for productivity and GDP growth.
The health sector too requires strengthening. Increasing public health expenditure, promoting multi-sectoral coordination, and focusing on preventive care can significantly improve health outcomes and workforce participation.
Policy reforms and structural investments are also essential. Sustaining and expanding reforms that foster economic inclusion, innovation, and entrepreneurship can absorb the growing workforce productively. Leveraging India’s young median age (~28 years) by creating jobs through infrastructure development, manufacturing, and services can further boost economic growth.
Empowerment and gender equality are crucial for realizing the demographic dividend's full potential. Promoting gender equity and empowerment programs can help utilize the full potential of the female workforce, which significantly contributes to GDP and social development.
The demographic dividend, a temporary economic bonus created when the working-age share of the population rises faster than dependents, could lift millions out of poverty and accelerate economic growth sharply by 2030. However, the success of these outcomes depends on timely and efficient implementation of policies focusing on reproductive health rights and the broader well-being and skills of the youth cohort.
India, with its 371 million people aged 15-29 years, the largest youth cohort globally, has a unique opportunity to harness this demographic advantage. Purposeful investment in the capabilities of this youth cohort could add about USD 1 trillion to India's GDP by 2030, according to World Bank and NITI Aayog modelling.
However, regional pockets of early marriage, adolescent fertility, low female labor force participation, and skill mismatches persist. To address these challenges, a coherent and sustained investment in health, education, and employment, combined with policies that foster a healthy, skilled, and empowered youth population, is necessary.
References:
- World Bank. (n.d.). India's Demographic Dividend. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/india/publication/indias-demographic-dividend
- NITI Aayog. (2017). Strategy for New India @ 75. Retrieved from https://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/document_publication/Strategy-for-New-India-at-75.pdf
- World Bank. (2020). India's Demographic Dividend - A Review of the Evidence. Retrieved from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34301
- Planning Commission. (2005). National Population Policy, 2000. Retrieved from http://planningcommission.gov.in/aboutus/reports/population/population_policy.pdf
- Government of India. (2019). New Education Policy 2020. Retrieved from https://www.mhrd.gov.in/sites/upload_files/mhrd/files/NEP_Final_English_0.pdf
- To capitalize on India's demographic dividend, fostering gender equity and women's health is essential, given that the female workforce significantly contributes to both GDP and social development.
- The integration of science, especially into health-and-wellness and education-and-self-development sectors, can improve the overall well-being of the youth cohort, making them productive contributors to the economy.
- By investing in lifestyle-related innovations, such as digitizing rural areas, India can ensure all youth, including rural young women, have opportunities and resources needed for personal growth, skill development, and employment.
- Infrastructure development, mains industries like manufacturing, and service sectors can create job opportunities for India's large youth cohort, ultimately boosting the national economy and helping achieve the goals outlined in the New Education Policy 2020.
